It’s the kind of partnership that could only exist in the age of AI capitalism.
AMD will sell chips to OpenAI. OpenAI will help design them. And if AMD’s share price keeps climbing, OpenAI will literally own a chunk of the company it’s buying from.
Welcome to the Stock Price Game — where both the dealer and the player can win, but only if the market keeps cheering.
Under the deal, OpenAI commits to deploying up to 6 gigawatts of AMD’s next-generation Instinct MI450 GPUs starting in 2026.
In return, AMD grants OpenAI warrants to purchase up to 10 % of the company — roughly 160 million shares at $0.01 each — tied to both deployment milestones and share-price targets that reach as high as $600.
That means every time AMD’s stock climbs, OpenAI’s potential paper fortune grows.
At $400 per share, OpenAI’s stake could be worth $65 billion; at $600, close to $97 billion.
It’s part supply contract, part performance bonus, and part Wall Street casino.
Assume AMD could generate $150 billion in revenue from OpenAI over the next few years. On paper, that sounds spectacular — but revenue isn’t profit. Even at a 30 % operating margin, AMD would earn $45 billion in operating profit against a potential $50 billion dilution cost from fully vested warrants at an average valuation of $500 billion.
That leaves a roughly $5 billion economic loss before considering any strategic upside. In other words, the partnership’s true value ultimately hinges on three factors: (1) any strategic upside from winning additional buyers, (2) meaningful improvements in AMD’s operating margin, and (3) how high AMD’s stock price can go — since a rising share price both enriches OpenAI and increases AMD’s dilution cost (but will make shareholders very happy).
At first glance, it’s a win-win:
But here’s the twist — the higher AMD’s stock climbs, the more valuable OpenAI’s warrants become, and the larger AMD’s dilution gets. Both sides are betting that stock-price appreciation outpaces dilution — a corporate version of musical chairs played to the beat of investor optimism.
At its core, this isn’t just a chip deal — it’s a financial flywheel.
OpenAI’s compute demand fuels AMD’s sales. AMD’s stock rises. That makes OpenAI richer, which in turn helps fund more AMD purchases.
Yet the final score won’t be decided by hype. It comes down to execution:
If yes, AMD transforms this into a breakout moment — the first serious breach in Nvidia’s fortress.
If not, it becomes another headline loop where valuation spins faster than earnings.
Bottom line: AMD and OpenAI have engineered one of the most creative financial alignments in tech — a partnership where valuation itself becomes a business model. Whether it’s brilliance or bubble depends on two words Wall Street never tires of watching: margin expansion and market adoption.
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